Deliberative Democracy Lab - Polling

Polling

Abstract

This abstract discusses the evolution and challenges of polling, from its inception by George Gallup in the 1930s to contemporary issues in the digital age. Initially a method for predicting election outcomes through random population samples, polling has become ubiquitous in media outlets. However, its reliability is questionable due to factors like rational ignorance and the phenomenon of phantom opinions, where respondents provide answers without true understanding. The concept of deliberative polling is introduced as a solution, emphasizing the importance of informed discussion among participants to enhance the quality and credibility of polling data. This approach encourages deeper engagement and comprehension of issues beyond superficial approval metrics.

Transcript

Now let’s talk about what polling is and how that is incorporated into, let’s say, deliberative polling.

Polling has had a very interesting history. So the first polls were actually done by George Gallup.

Back in the day, George Gallup actually created what we know now as conventional traditional polling. He decided that he would take a random sample of certain population in the US to predict the then presidential election in the 1930s. And when George Gallup got it right and done it with much ease and cheaper, he became famous. And then that was the start of traditional and conventional polling.

When we see polls on the Internet, whether it be a CNN or a Fox News poll, we always see them asserted very confidently saying, you know, “80% of people approve this.” Or, “Only 20% of people approve this.”

How do you even know what’s right? A lot of research has gone into what are good polls and bad polls, and here are some reasons why sometimes polls are bad.

One, Rational Ignorance. People just don’t have time to think about what they’re answering in polls. People are too busy and they just don’t wanna pay attention. And so what happens when people don’t answer truthfully is we get phantom opinions.

It sounds scary, but really it’s just people answer polls when they don’t know and don’t understand.

One of the most famous research on phantom opinions is from George Bishop in 1975 when he did a poll called the Public Affairs Act of 1975. He ran this poll just like any other poll, except the caveat was that Public Affairs Act of 1975 didn’t exist. So he ran the poll and he got results.

Some people approved, some people disapproved, and it just showed that people are afraid to say they don’t know something. People will answer no matter what, because they don’t want to be embarrassed. And this poses a big problem for survey organizations. How do you know when someone’s actually providing a truthful answer?

With all that is amazing. With the Internet, it is actually posing a lot of problems for polling organizations. Think about it. We are able to access anything we want at any time, and we can actually tailor all of the information to really just what we want to see.

So if we only want to see Fox News or we only want to see CNN in our newsfeed, then we can only see those things. And if our understanding of the world is only from a couple news sources, we have big problems, and it’s really leading to a lot of extremity and polarization in our society.

So in short, can you really trust the polls that you see?

The answer really is, I don’t know. You have to dig deeper.

You have to look at what type of polling organization is it? Is it a legitimate polling organization? Is it from, you know, I-DON’T-KNOW-WHO-IT-IS.COM, or is it actually from an ABC or YouGov or a Pew Research or respectable polling outlet? You have to do your own investigating when you are consuming this type of information.

And more importantly, if we dig a lot deeper, you know how many people are actually answering the polls that you’re reading? 10 people, 20 people, or is it a thousand or 2000 people?

There’s so much to learn when beyond just looking at whether something is highly approved or highly disapproved, and this is where deliberative polling comes in. Instead of just serving a group of people, we’re actually bringing them together and engaging them in discussion and allowing them to have a conversation and really understand what it means to be informed about certain issues.

So don’t just look at polling numbers on face value. Make sure that you are really taking a good, hard look at what they mean.


Watch the Full Series on Deliberative Polling by the Stanford Democracy Lab x Rustic Pathways

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